CoVID-19 in Japan: What could happen in the future?

We adopt a novel statistical time delay dynamic model proposed in our recent work to estimate the evolution of COVID-19. Based on the cumulative number of confirmed cases and cured cases published daily by government, we effectively simulate and predict the outbreak trend of COVID-19 in different regions in China. Meanwhile, the model reveals the growth rate of the epidemic, through which the basic reproductive number is thus estimated to be 3.25 to 3.4. Then, we apply the model to track the spread of COVID-19 in Japan. We find that the trend of the epidemic in Japan is strikingly similar to that in Wuhan, China at the early stage. Therefore there are reasons to draw a serious concern that there could be a rapid outbreak in Japan if no effective control measures are carried out immediately. Finally, we make a prediction of the future trend of COVID-19 in Japan, and suggest an enhancement of control measures as soon as possible, so as to avoid a severe outbreak