Modeling the potential distribution of Zelkova schneideriana under different human activity intensities and climate change patterns in China

Abstract The influence of climate change and human activities on the distribution and biodiversity of endangered plants has been a hot topic over recent years. In the future, the use of species distribution modeling will be of great theoretical and practical significance for the prediction of trends in the spatial change of suitable habitats of threatened species as a result of climate change. Since 2018, Zelkova schneideriana has been listed in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species as “Vulnerable”. Based on current species location data, the MaxEnt model was used to simulate potential habitat changes for Z. schneideriana under predicted climate change scenarios. The simulation results showed the precipitation of the driest quarter was determined to be the key influential variable that affected the natural habitat distribution of Z. schneideriana the most (accounting for 70.8%). The precipitation of driest month was the most influential factor for the human-influenced Z. schneideriana (accounting for 29.2%). The simulated distribution area of Z. schneideriana showed possibly future loss (more lost suitable areas and less expansion suitable area). Meanwhile, the trees may not be able to reach the simulated expansion of suitable areas under natural conditions because of the dispersal limitation and geographic barriers. Therefore, the distribution of Z. schneideriana may be greatly diminished in the future, even under human-managed environment in the future if in situ conservation measures are not instigated in time.