Forecasting of origin-destination matrix of freight transportation of Surakarta with maximum likelihood method

Congestion is a major transportation problem endured by most cities since it potentially causes adverse impacts to the economic and social dimension as well as to the environment. Such a problem will become more complicated if it is not supported by an appropriate transportation planning. Therefore, an effort to estimate the impact of freight transportation on the road network performance becomes essential to reduce the potential congestion in the future, while the determination of OD Matrix is a crucial step in the process of transportation planning. The aim of this research was to estimate the OD Matrix of freight transportation of Surakarta City in 2025. The Gravity model was used to determine the OD matrix. Calibration of parameter β on gravity model was solved by maximum likelihood method. It found out the parameter value of β was 0.081. The result showed that the estimated total external-external freight transportation in the morning peak hour in 2025 reaches 2.642 pcu/hour.Congestion is a major transportation problem endured by most cities since it potentially causes adverse impacts to the economic and social dimension as well as to the environment. Such a problem will become more complicated if it is not supported by an appropriate transportation planning. Therefore, an effort to estimate the impact of freight transportation on the road network performance becomes essential to reduce the potential congestion in the future, while the determination of OD Matrix is a crucial step in the process of transportation planning. The aim of this research was to estimate the OD Matrix of freight transportation of Surakarta City in 2025. The Gravity model was used to determine the OD matrix. Calibration of parameter β on gravity model was solved by maximum likelihood method. It found out the parameter value of β was 0.081. The result showed that the estimated total external-external freight transportation in the morning peak hour in 2025 reaches 2.642 pcu/hour.