Real-time thermal dynamic analysis of a house using RC models and joint state-parameter estimation

Abstract To enable optimal building energy management in response to the ever-changing building and boundary conditions, it is critical to have numerical models that can provide accurate online prediction based on economically measurable inputs and feedback. The present study explores the capabilities of using the unscented Kalman filtering (UKF) in combination with resistor-capacitor (RC) models for online estimation of the thermal dynamics of single detached houses. A joint state-parameter UKF estimation approach is applied to estimate unknown state and model parameters by using fictitious process equations to augment the state vector to include model parameters. The performance of this approach is evaluated by comparing the estimated state values to the monitored data. In addition, the prediction capability of the updated model is also investigated. The estimation procedure, mathematical operations, and result analysis are presented in detail. The remarkable model performance achieved shows that UKF can efficiently improve RC models’ predictability and enable timely online model update and response prediction.