Statistical data-based approach to establish risk criteria for cascade reservoir systems in China

The risk management of cascade reservoir systems (CRSs) is a major public challenge, and the establishment of risk criteria is critical to solving this issue. In this paper, an approach is presented to establish risk criteria of for CRSs in China based on statistical data (reservoir dam break accidents; fatalities due to reservoir dam breaks; the construction date of defective reservoirs; and the current situation of CRSs), F–N curves, F–E curves, F–I curves, and the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) principle. This paper has some innovations in the following aspects. First, the characteristics of CRSs are revealed for the first time. Second, risk criteria for CRSs are suggested. Third, the engineering safety level, risk exposure level, and risk level of CRSs in China are determined. The research results of this paper provide abundant information for the operation management, maintenance and reinforcement of CRSs in China.