ANÁLISE MORFOLÓGICA DA INTRODUÇÃO DE VEÍCULOS ELÉTRICOS NO TRÁFEGO URBANO DE SÃO PAULO

Pressures of international organizations and governmental regulations have increased substantially when it comes to the reduction of dependence on fossil fuels and transport pollutants emissions. To meet these challenges, the automotive industry invests large sums in research and development in a broad portfolio of new technologies related to vehicular propulsion. Considering the alternatives in development, electric vehicles, specifically, have increasingly received attention both in Brazil and abroad. This study aims to contribute to the construction of future scenarios in 2020 related to the introduction of electric vehicles in urban traffic in Sao PROFUTURO: PROGRAMA DE ESTUDOS DO FUTURO Editor cientifico: James Terence Coulter Wright Avaliacao: Double Blind Review pelo SEER/OJS Revisao: Gramatical, normativa e de formatacao Future Studies Research Journal ISSN 2175-5825 Sao Paulo, v. 3, n. 1, pp. 14 37, Jan./Jul. 2011 16 Paulo, part of a CNPq/FINEP research project under development at the University of Sao Paulo (USP/FEA), coordinated by Prof. James T. C. Wright. The method of Morphological Analysis was used because it facilitates the structuring of managerial and technological complexities of the proposed problem, aiming the identification of critical variables and their correlation for the prospect of scenarios. The variables that influence an urban transport system were structured into four logical groups: scope of usage, structural architecture and propulsion system of the vehicle, road and energy supply/recharge infrastructure, business model; these groups, in turn, were broken down into different levels, leading to other variables. After that, alternative forms that the selected variables could assume were generated. The multidimensional matrix resulting from this set of combinatorial possibilities passed through, then, by careful analysis of feasibility and consistency in order to identify the basic settings of greatest interest to the effort of scenarios prospecting.