Sensitivity analysis on the SEIR-SEI model for the dynamics of blinding trachoma

In many engineering and science fields sensitivity analysis has become highly interesting. For the mathematical modeling of biological phenomena, researchers use sensitivity and uncertainty analysis because of its usefulness for defining important parameters for performance of the model. It can also help in the process of experimental analysis, reducing model order, estimating parameters, taking decisions or developing recommendations for decision-makers. Here, we illustrated the use of the local sensitivity analysis to explain the effect of various parameters on a threshold parameter, R0, resulting from the study of a dynamics model inside the human-host. And it is confirmed from computed elasticity indices that the most sensitive parameter to basic reproduction number is (vector contact rate) followed by rates of transmission. Moreover, a detailed parameter estimation of the model parameters and model fitting presented with the use of field data cases from Northern Nigeria using least-square fitting method. Finally, the sensitivity analysis results shows that improving the rate of environmental hygiene and facial cleanliness will attract a consequential decrease in the size of basic reproduction number, which results in the declination of the disease transmission.