Seismic Risk Analysis of the Bay Area Rapid Transit System

This paper presents a Seismic Risk Analysis of the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system. The seismic risk analysis includes assessments of (1) How the existing BART system might perform after large earthquakes on the San Andreas, Hayward, Calaveras and Concord faults; (2) How a seismically-upgraded BART system might perform after these same earthquakes, assuming implementation of any of five different retrofit alternatives (called Packages 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). The capital cost of these five packages ranges from $729,000,000 to $1,118,000,000. (All $ in this paper are in $2002); and (3) The benefits and costs of the six alternatives: do nothing, or implement any of the fire retrofit packages. This assessment is done using benefit-cost analysis.