The Effect of the Wenchuan and Lushan Earthquakes on the Size Distribution of Earthquakes along the Longmenshan Fault

Abstract. Changes in the stress state of faults and their surroundings is a highly plausible mechanism explaining earthquakes interaction. These stress changes can impact the seismicity rate and the size distribution of earthquakes. However, the effect of large earthquakes on the earthquake size distribution along the Longmenshan fault has not been quantified. We evaluated the levels of the b value for the stable state before and after the large earthquakes on 12 May 2008 (Wenchuan, MS 8.0) and 20 April 2013 (Lushan, MS 7.0) along the Longmenshan fault. We found that after the mainshocks, the size distribution of the subsequent earthquakes shifted toward relatively larger events in the Wenchuan aftershock zone (b value decreased from 1.03 to 0.84), and generally remained invariable in the Lushan aftershock zone (b value remained at 0.76). The time required for the b value to return to stable states after both mainshocks were entirely consistent with the time needed by the aftershock depth images to stop visibly changing. The result of the temporal variation of b values show decreasing trends for the b value before both large earthquakes. Our results are available for assessing the potential seismic risk of the Longmenshan fault as a reference.