Evaluating risk in a rural environment; a case study; Sorbas, SE Spain

Rural environments in Europe are occupied by over 30% of the total population. The population of Spain is 40 Million with over 20% residing in rural areas, which is lower than the UN global estimate of 50%. The Sorbas Area of SE Spain is a typical rural environment having a population density of approximately 10 per km 2 , with the majority of the population residing in small towns and villages. Except on the coastal areas the main employer is non-intensive pastoral agriculture, and quarrying. On the coast more intensive farming is found along with a tourist industry. Natural hazard and risk investigations have concentrated on the interaction between the process, such as landslides or floods, and infrastructure development, notably in urban environments. Here the consequences can be easily quantified in terms of lives lost, the value of property and the land affected. However, little work has been published describing the main risks to rural environments were the adverse consequences cannot so easily be identified or quantified. If the likely potential consequence cannot be identified and evaluated effectively then the consequence-benefit analysis for mitigation measures would skew the measures in favour of areas of higher population, thus potentially ignoring the effects on smaller rural communities. This paper aims to evaluate the consequences of a landslide event on a rural area and tries to answer the fundamental questions: - What is there to be affected? - How will it be affected? - What is the likely potential for secondary hazards? - And how will the adverse consequences be valued? A method is then put forward to allow the evaluation of the potential consequences of natural hazards in rural areas as part of a broader study on landslides in the Sorbas area.