Spatio-temporal model of avian influenza spread risk

Abstract HPAI virus has caused significant economic losses in the poultry industry. Backyard and outdoor poultry farms (BOPF) can play an important role in the spread of the disease. A spatio-temporal model has been developed to identify areas and periods at higher risk of HPAI spread in BOPF and applied on a Spanish region. Six risk factors were considered: Census, density, biosecurity, species susceptibility, proximity to risk wetlands and virus survival. A risk map was generated adding each risk factor as a spatial layer and a spatial-temporal analysis was conducted using scan statistics. Six clusters of spread risk of HPAI were identified in December and January. Despite the simplicity of the model, this system allows to focus the surveillance efforts in the highest risk areas and species. Thereby it could improve the efficiency of surveillance and control systems in terms of cost/benefit ratio