Discovery of a Candidate Binary Supermassive Black Hole in a Periodic Quasar from Circumbinary Accretion Variability

Binary supermassive black holes are expected to be a generic byproduct from hierarchical galaxy formation. The final coalescence of BSBHs is thought to be the loudest gravitational wave siren in the universe, yet no confirmed BSBH is known in the GW-dominated regime. While periodic quasars have been proposed as BSBH candidates, the physical origin of the periodicity has been largely uncertain. Here we report discovery of a periodicity (P~1607 days) at 99.95% significance in the optical light curves of a quasar at z=1.53, SDSS J025214.67-002813.7. Combining archival Sloan Digital Sky Survey data with new, high signal to noise imaging from the Dark Energy Survey, the total ~20yr time baseline spans ~4.6 cycles of the observed 4.4-yr (restframe 1.7-yr) periodicity. The light curves are best characterized by a bursty model predicted by hydrodynamic simulations of circumbinary accretion disks. The periodicity is likely caused by accretion rate variability periodically modulated by a milli-parsec BSBH emitting gravitational waves while still being dynamically coupled to the circumbinary accretion disk. A characteristic bursty hydrodynamic variability model is statistically preferred over a smooth, sinusoidal model expected from relativistic Doppler boost, a kinematic effect proposed for PG1302-102. Furthermore, the frequency dependence of the variability amplitudes disfavors Doppler boost as the dominant mechanism, lending independent support to the circumbinary accretion variability hypothesis. Given our detection rate of one BSBH candidate from circumbinary accretion variability out of 625 quasars, it suggests that future large, sensitive synoptic surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time at Vera C. Rubin Observatory may be able to detect hundreds to thousands of candidate BSBHs from circumbinary accretion variability with direct implications for Laser Interferometer Space Antenna.