Long-term Evolution of High Area-to-Mass Ratio Objects in Different Orbital Region

Objects with high area-to-mass ratios (HAMR) in high-altitude orbits were first discovered in 2004. The orbits of these objects had semimajor axes near the nominal value of geosynchronous objects but eccentricities considerably different from zero. They are believed to stem from parent objects which reside (or resided) in or near the geostationary ring (GEO). The mechanisms of their production are, however, still unknown. Several hypotheses were put forward, including breakup events and aging processes leading to delamination of spacecraft surface materials. Similar HAMR populations as found in GEO-like orbits may be expected in other orbital regions. Optical surveys of the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) revealed HAMR objects in a variety of geostationary transfer orbits (GTO). This paper will analyze the long-term evolution of HAMR objects in different orbital regimes including the GEO disposal orbits, Medium-Earth orbits of the navigation satellite constellations and Molniya orbits. The characteristics of the hypothetic HAMR populations will be based on the observed population in GEO and GTO. The simulation results allow assessing the future threats stemming from HAMR objects.