Rethinking Carbon-Neutral Built Environment: Urban Dynamics and Scenario Analysis

Abstract Decarbonisation of the built environment is high on the agenda for sustainable urbanisation and is increasingly recognized as a critical path to climate neutrality. As a microcosm of modern cities, precincts are at the forefront for urban planning, development and assessment, as well as for exploring the carbon-neutral potential of the built environment. Despite many innovative solutions have been proposed for decarbonising precincts, carbon assessment and carbon-neutral potential exploration in the dynamic environment is remain challenging, due to the integration of complex morphological variations, demographical changes, on premises renewable energy production and electric vehicle uptakes. This research presents a preliminary study on the life cycle carbon assessment of residential precincts, as well as their carbon neutrality opportunities and options with dynamic settings. A case study with 100 scenarios is employed to explore critical factors in precinct decarbonisation. This is followed by comparative analysis of critical factors and their impacts on precinct carbon signature and carbon-neutral potential. The article concludes that changes in energy-efficiency of building types and in demographical characteristics are the two major factors influencing precinct carbon performance. Where, redevelopment of precinct with buildings of higher-rated energy efficiency and increase of on-site renewable energy uptake can have a long-term positive impact on precinct carbon performance. Moreover, improving energy efficiency through existing building refurbishment might of the potential for a fast-track of precinct carbon. Meanwhile, demographical changes with precinct evolution, especially in family types and energy consumption behaviors, can significantly affect the carbon performance and neutrality of urban precincts in the dynamic built environment.