Diffusion or coalescence? Urban growth pattern and change in 363 Chinese cities from 1995 to 2015

Abstract Urban development can occur through diffusion (sprawl) or coalescence. This paper selects all 363 prefecture-level or higher level cities in China and detects their dynamic change of urban growth pattern in 1995–2005 and 2005–2015. Three main findings can be obtained: (1) In two periods, the vast majority of Chinese cities are expanding by the way of edge-expansion.(2) Cities in the western region tend to be most likely to grow through dispersion (64.71%), with smaller percentages of cities in the eastern region (46.08%) and the central region (43.20%) growing through dispersion; (3) During the two stages of urban development, the achievement of controlling urban sprawl is mainly in the city with high economic development level. (4) Xinyu City, Nujiang City, Guangyuan City etc., a total of 20 individual cities are the key cities where urban sprawl is occurring, besides, the junction of Gansu Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in the northwest China and the junction of northern part of Jiangsu Province and Anhui Province in the east China are the key regions of urban diffusional sprawl, The result of this paper could provide reference to China’s urban master planning in the future.