Geomorphic and paleoseismological evidence of capable faulting in the Northern Apennines (Italy): insights into active tectonics and seismic hazard of the Lunigiana basin

Abstract The Lunigiana basin is a NW trending tectonic depression located in the Northern Apennines of Italy. The basin is bounded by active normal faults, characterized by moderate to strong seismicity, with historical earthquakes reaching up to magnitude 6 (February 14, 1834) and instrumental events with magnitude up to 5.4 (June 21, 2013). Using the classical methodologies of active tectonic studies (i.e. remote sensing and digital topography analysis, field mapping, structural geology, and tectonic geomorphology), the main active faults have been mapped for their geometries, kinematics and evidence of activity. Both fault systems bounding the basin to the northeast and southwest have revealed clear evidence of fault capability, i.e., tectonic displacement of the latest Pleistocene-Holocene sediments and geomorphic markers. Then, the study focused on the southwestern Arzelato-Mulazzo-Tresana fault system (AMT), depicting its Late Quaternary tectono-sedimentary evolution and linkage relationship between important fault segments. The throw measurement of key geomorphic markers on the central fault of the AMT allowed to derive medium- (last 350-250 ka) and short-term (18-13 ka) vertical slip rates: 0.44-0.62 and 0.45-0.68 mm/yr, respectively. Lastly, an exploratory trench for paleoseismological analysis was dug across the fault scarp where geomorphic indicators of active surface faulting were most pronounced, just south of the village of Mulazzo. Its paleoseismological analysis revealed at least two events of surface faulting, with a cumulative throw in excess of 70 cm, occurred in historical times. Radiocarbon dating of the exposed alluvial and slope deposits allowed to bracket the surface rupture events to 14th to 19th century AD and after the 18th century AD. Typically, in the active extensional belt of the Apennines, the observed offsets correspond to earthquakes of magnitude >6.3, also confirmed by the empirical fault-scaling laws. This magnitude is, therefore, higher than that currently inferred for this seismic source (Mw 5.7÷6.0 in the DISS catalog) and is comparable to that experienced in the adjoining Garfagnana basin (Mw 6.5 on September 7, 1920). The findings of this research suggests a need to revise the seismic hazard of the Lunigiana basin, including greater consideration of the surface faulting hazard in the seismic microzonation studies. More generally, our findings provide new insight into the comprehension of a) the still unclear deep geometry (listric or not?) and the hierarchy of bounding faults, and b) provide new elements to decipher the puzzling seismotectonic relationships of Lunigiana with the adjoining basins on both its ends, characterized by quite different structural settings.