The Direct Effect of Body Mass Index on Cardiovascular Outcomes among Participants Without Central Obesity by Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation.

2021 
BACKGROUND Body mass index (BMI) is the most commonly used index to categorize a person as obese or non-obese, which is subject to important limitations. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the direct effect of BMI on cardiovascular outcomes among participants without central obesity. METHODS This analysis included 14,983 males and females aged 45-75 years from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC). BMI was measured as general obesity, and waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and hip circumference as central obesity. Targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) was used to estimate the total effects (TEs) and the controlled direct effects (CDEs). The proportion of TE that would be eliminated if all participants were non-obese regarding central obesity was computed using the proportion eliminated (PE) index. P <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Analyses were performed in the TMLE R package. RESULTS The risk of cardiovascular outcomes attributed to BMI was significantly reversed by eliminating WHR obesity (p<0.001). The proportion eliminated of BMI effects was more tangible for non-obese participants regarding WC (PE=127%; 95%CI (126,128)) and WHR (PE=97%; 95%CI (96,98)) for coronary heart disease (CHD), and WHR (PE=92%; 95%CI (91,94)) for stroke, respectively. With respect to sex, the proportion eliminated of BMI effects was more tangible for non-obese participants regarding WHR (PE=428%; 95%CI (408,439)) for CHD in males, and WC (PE=99%; 95%CI (89,111)) for stroke in females, respectively. CONCLUSION These results indicate different potential effects of eliminating central obesity on the association between BMI and cardiovascular outcomes for males and females. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2021; 116(5):879-886).
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