Development and Validation of an Infection Risk Model for Bacterial Canker of Kiwifruit, Using a Multiplication and Dispersal Concept for Forecasting Bacterial Diseases

A weather-based disease prediction model for bacterial canker of kiwifruit (known worldwide as Psa; Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae biovar 3) was developed using a new mechanistic scheme for bacterial disease forecasters, the multiplication and dispersal concept. Bacterial multiplication is estimated from a temperature function, the M index, accumulated from hourly air temperature over 3 days for hours when the leaf canopy is wet. Rainfall provides free water to move inoculum to infection sites, and the daily risk indicator, the R index, is the 3-day accumulation of the M index output on days with total rainfall >1 mm; otherwise, R is zero. The model was field-tested using potted kiwifruit trap plants exposed for discrete periods in infected kiwifruit orchards to identify when leaf infection occurred. In a 9-week study during spring, the R index predicted leaf-spot intensity with high accuracy (R2 = 93%) and, in an 82-week seasonal accuracy study, prediction of infection incidence was most accurate fr...