A multipredictor model to predict the conversion of mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer’s disease by using a predictive nomogram

Predicting the probability of converting from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is still a challenging task. This study aims at providing a personalized MCI-to-AD conversion estimation by using a multipredictor nomogram that integrates neuroimaging features, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker, and clinical assessments. To do so, 290 MCI patients were collected from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), of whom 76 has converted to AD and 214 remained with MCI. All subjects were randomly divided into a primary and validation cohort. Radiomics signature (Rad-sig) was obtained based on 17 cerebral cortex features selected by using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) algorithm. Clinical factors and amyloid-beta peptide (Aβ) concentration were selected by using Spearman correlation between the converted and not-converted patients. Then, a nomogram that combines image features, clinical factor, and Aβ concentration was constructed and validated. Furthermore, we explored the associations between various predictors from the macro- to the microperspective by assessing gene expression patterns. Our results showed that the multipredictor nomogram (C-index 0.978 and 0.956 in both cohorts, respectively) outperformed the nomogram using either Rad-sig or Aβ concentration as individual predictors. Significant associations were found between neuropsychological scores, cerebral cortex features, Aβ levels, and underlying gene pathways. Our study may have a clinical impact as a powerful predictive tool for predicting the conversion probability of MCI and providing associations between cognitive impairment, structural changes, Aβ levels, and underlying biological patterns from the macro- to the microperspective.