Assessment of the likelihood of the introduction of foot-and-mouth disease through importation of live animals into the Malaysia-Thailand- Myanmar peninsula

Objective—To assess the likelihood of an introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) into the Malaysia-Thailand-Myanmar (MTM) peninsula through terrestrial movement of livestock. Animals—89,294 cattle and buffalo legally moved into the MTM peninsula. Procedures—A quantitative risk assessment was conducted by use of a stochastic simulation. Patterns of livestock movement were ascertained through review of relevant governmental records and regulations and by interviewing farmers, traders, and local officers when the records did not exist. Parameters identified in the process were the probabilities of livestock having FMD and of FMD infection going undetected during import processes. The probability of an animal accepted for import having FMD was also assessed. Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the effects that each parameter had on the model. Results—The simulation yielded an average consignment prevalence of 10.95%. Typically, each animal in a quarantine facility had a 2.7% chance of having ...