Vulnerability of inland and coastal aquaculture to climate change: Evidence from a developing country

Abstract Developing countries, which contribute 90% of global aquaculture production, are considered global climate risk hotspots. However, no study focuses on measuring district- or sub-national-level aquaculture vulnerability to climatic hazards or disasters. This study has measured the level of aquaculture vulnerability to climate variability and change in all 64 districts of Bangladesh using a composite vulnerability index approach (using 19 climatic, environmental and socio-economic indicators) and geographical information system (GIS). The results reveal that aquaculture in 12 districts namely Satkhira, Mymensingh, Panchagarh, Lalmonirhat, Nilphamari, Thakurgaon, Sunamganj, Dinajpur, Kurigram, Noakhali, Lakshmipur, and Cox's Bazar have very high vulnerability (in order of highest to lowest vulnerability), which are explained by their higher level of exposure, moderate level of sensitivity, and lower to moderate level of adaptive capacity. Among these, 8 districts belong to inland and 4 districts to coastal regions of the country. Three districts, namely Dhaka, Chittagong, and Bandarban, have the lowest level of aquaculture vulnerability (in order of lowest to highest vulnerability) mainly because of very high adaptive capacity and moderate or low level of sensitivity and exposure. This study will punctuate the vulnerability of inland aquaculture and develop and prioritize actions to reduce the climatic impacts.