Long-term scenarios and strategies for the deployment of renewable energies in Germany in view of European and global developments

This study presents results of systems-analysis examinations of the transformation of electricity, heat, and fuel generation in Germany that were developed by the DLR with project partners in a three-year research project for the Federal Ministry of the Environment. The study continues research carried out in previous years by the DLR with varying project partners for the Federal Ministry of the Environment (BMU) and the Federal Environmental Agency (UBA). In essence, self-consistent energy scenarios for long-term expansion of renewables and for the remaining supply of energy, and the structural and economic effects to be derived from these, were developed. In addition, the project partners, the DLR-STB and the Fraunhofer IWES in Kassel, performed a simulation of the future electricity supply as it develops over time, with a partial spatial resolution. This enabled the scenarios for electricity generation to be validated with respect to load coverage, and also the role of load-equalization options, such as flexibilization of the set of conventional power stations, extension of the grid, load management, and the use of electricity storage systems, to be studied. The scenarios are oriented to the overall goal of the German Federal government’s Energy Concept, an eighty-percent reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050, and also meet the subsidiary goals with respect to expansion of renewables and increases in efficiency for the most part. They thus show clearly the structural changes associated with meeting the political goals. Among other things, the scenarios illustrate different paths of development in the transportation sector, and their implications for an energy system with high proportions of renewable sources. The economic analysis of the scenarios with the focus on investment costs, electricity and heat generating costs as well as “system-analytical differential costs” with respect to a fictitious energy supply system that covers its demand for energy without renewable sources of energy is showing the tremendous long-term benefits of the energy system transformation. The study (in German) and the summary report in English can also be found on the BMU website.