An ecological scenario prediction model for newly created wetlands caused by coal mine subsidence in the Yanzhou, China

The ecological model we developed can simulate the state of wetlands and predict ecosystem development by varying both parameter settings and forcing functions. The newly created wetland resulting from large-scale coal mining is a distinct type of wetland, but existing ecological models for this wetland type are limited in number and scope. The Yanzhou coalfield, located in Shandong Province in China, contains a typical newly created wetland that came into being after coal mining subsidence. We developed an ecological model for this wetland that estimates values for four state variables: phytoplankton biomass (A), zooplankton biomass (Z), sediment biomass (D), and hydrophyte biomass (H). Analysis of the results showed that the model was sensitive to changes in nutrient loading. As nutrient loads increased, plankton biomass increased, and the ratio of zooplankton biomass to phytoplankton biomass (Z/A) decreased. We defined three prediction scenarios for the wetland and calculated their eco-exergies to compare the ecological effects for each scenario. The most effective measures to improve the state of the ecosystem are to reduce the subsidence depth and to decrease nutrient loading.