Predicting suitable habitats of ginkgo biloba L. fruit forests in China

Abstract Ginkgo fruit can be used for food and medicine with high economic values. It is of great importance to ensure its sustainable production and genetic resource protection under climate change. In this study, niche models built with climate and soil variables, respectively, were used to assess the impact of climate change on its potential suitable habitat. The model performance was excellent for the climate model (AUC = 0.92) and good for the soil model (AUC = 0.84). Three climate variables (degree-days below zero, mean coldest month temperature, and mean annual precipitation) and two soil variables (subsoil cation exchange capacity and topsoil cation exchange capacity) were the main factors determining the distribution of ginkgo fruit forests. The level of predicted habitat suitability was consistent with the differences observed in fruit traits, suggesting that our model predictions make biological and economic sense. The high- and medium-suitable habitats of this species would decrease in future climates under both the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. This study contributed to a better understanding of the impact of climate change on ginkgo fruit forests and provided potential geographical areas for the cultivation and conservation of this species.