Assessment of microbial risk during Australian industrial practices for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in fresh cut-cos lettuce: A stochastic quantitative approach

Abstract Escherichia coli O157:H7 risk associated with the consumption of fresh cut-cos lettuce during Australian industrial practices was assessed. A probabilistic risk assessment model was developed and implemented in the @Risk software by using the Monte Carlo simulation technique with 1,000,000 iterations. Australian preharvest practices yielded predicted annual mean E. coli O157:H7 levels from 0.2 to −3.4 log CFU/g and prevalence values ranged from 2 to 6.4%. While exclusion of solar radiation from the baseline model yielded a significant increase in concentration of E. coli O157:H7 (−5.2 -log fold), drip irrigation usage, exclusion of manure amended soil and rainfall reduced E. coli O157:H7 levels by 7.4, 6.5, and 4.3-log fold, respectively. The microbial quality of irrigation water and irrigation type both had a significant effect on E. coli O157:H7 concentrations at harvest (p