Dynamics of threatened mammalian distribution in Iran’s protected areas under climate change

Iran has a diverse range of mammals. Climate change can alter the species' range, leading to expansion or contraction and affect the IUCN threatened species' distribution. We assessed the effects of climate change on the climatic niche and coverage of the protected areas for 16 threatened mammal species in Iran. The species’ presence-only occurrence records, four predictor variables, two future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5) and two time steps (current and 2070) were used to build species distribution models by applying the ensemble approach in BIOMOD2. Species' responses to climate change under current condition showed different results: 8 of the 16 species are likely to gain climatically suitable space, but six species will probably lose climate range by 2070. Persian fallow deer and marbled polecat respond positively to the RCP 2.6 but will experience a range reduction in the RCP 8.5. Coverage of the protected area network will increase in both scenarios for six mammals. The coverage will maximize in RCP 2.6 for four species and decrease RCP 8.5 for another four species and vice versa. According to our model, the coverage will decrease for two species in both future scenarios. The overlap of the protected areas with the distribution pattern showed that in the next 50 years, climate change will negatively affect 60% of Iranian threatened mammals. The species’ current and future distribution range and the designated refugia for climate change can be considered protected areas for conservation plans.