Ocean/Troposphere/Stratosphere Forecast Systems: A State-of-the-Art Review.

Abstract : The question of the feasibility of developing a coupled Ocean-Troposphere-Stratosphere Forecast System is discussed. The system would be run operationally by Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center (FNOC). Specifically, the state-of-the-art ocean-atmosphere modeling is reviewed to decide if such a forecast system is feasible during the next five years (1982-87). The conclusion of the review is that such a system is not operationally feasible in the next five years. Modeling research efforts at various institutions and laboratories have been unable to reproduce many of the observed interactions between the ocean-troposphere and troposphere-stratosphere. In some instances, models have produced erroneous interactions, actually degrading atmospheric forecast skill when compared to models without these interactions. Until such time as the state-of-the-art of coupled ocean and atmosphere models can guarantee benefits from simulating these interactions, operational use of them is not advised.