Economic impact of the Rohingya refugees: A natural experiment

The Rohingya crisis is the fourth largest displacement of population in the world, with most the refugees sheltering in neighbouring Bangladesh. We use this event as a natural experiment to examine the impact of the sudden influx of Rohingyas on the prices in the host regions of Bangladesh. We have pieced together a unique data set on food prices based on unpublished information at the local government levels covering pre- and post-influx period. We use the difference-in-difference method to identify the causal impact of the refugee influx on the prices in the local area. Our baseline results indicate that overall food prices increased by 9 percent in the host regions, with prices of protein and vegetables increasing by 8 and 36 percent respectively. For aid-supplied food products, such as cereals, the we do not find any statistically significant increase in prices.