Ship’s response strategy to emission control areas: From the perspective of sailing pattern optimization and evasion strategy selection

Abstract This paper comprehensively analyzes ship’s response strategy to emission control areas (ECAs). By establishing mixed integer nonlinear programming models, we obtain the optimal sailing pattern and evasion strategy selection. Furthermore, the impacts of different factors on response strategy are discussed, which deepens our understanding of the dynamic adjustment of decisions. The results show that for a total of 420 routes (21 ports) within the North American ECA, ships will adopt evasion strategy on 39.05% routes, and this ratio will decline slightly to 29.05% after 2020. In addition, evasion strategy will increase ship’s total pollution emissions, resulting in less emission reduction.