Mathematical Assessment of Control Measures Against Mosquito-borne Diseases
2020
Mosquitoes are the greatest killers of mankind, and
diseases caused by mosquitoes continue to induce major public
health and socio-economic burden in many parts of the world
(notably in the tropical sub-regions). This dissertation
contributes in providing deeper qualitative insights into the
transmission dynamics and control of some mosquito-borne diseases
of major public health significance, such as malaria and dengue.
The widespread use of chemical insecticides, in the form of
long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual
spraying, has led to a dramatic decline in malaria burden in
endemic areas for the period 2000-2015. This prompted a concerted
global effort aiming for malaria eradication by 2040.
Unfortunately, the gains recorded are threatened (or not
sustainable) due to it Anopheles resistance to all the chemicals
embedded in the existing insecticides. This dissertation addresses
the all-important question of whether or not malaria eradication
can indeed be achieved using insecticides-based control. A novel
mathematical model, which incorporates the detailed Anopheles
lifecycle and local temperature fluctuations, was designed to
address this question. Rigorous analysis of the model, together
with numerical simulations using relevant data from endemic areas,
show that malaria elimination in meso- and holo-endemic areas is
feasible using moderate coverage of moderately-effective and high
coverage of highly-effective LLINs, respectively. Biological
controls, such as the use of sterile insect technology, have also
been advocated as vital for the malaria eradication effort. A new
model was developed to determine whether the release of sterile
male mosquitoes into the population of wild adult female Anopheles
mosquito could lead to a significant reduction (or elimination) of
the wild adult female mosquito population. It is shown that the
frequent release of a large number of sterile male mosquitoes, over
a one year period, could lead to the effective control of the
targeted mosquito population. Finally, a new model was designed and
used to study the transmission dynamics of dengue serotypes in a
population where the Dengvaxia vaccine is used. It is shown that
using of the vaccine in dengue-naive populations may induce
increased risk of severe disease in these
populations.
Keywords:
- Correction
- Source
- Cite
- Save
- Machine Reading By IdeaReader
0
References
0
Citations
NaN
KQI