Research on impact of prediction error of new energy on power grid based on probabilistic power flow algorithm

Research on evaluation for overload probability, probability-limit and static safety of voltage based on stochastic trend, can be used to discover vulnerabilities in the power grid. Wind power output, load changes, forced outages and generator fault lines and other uncertainties were considered. Random disturbances of large-scale new energy generation accessing the grid concerned, linear Monte Carlo method, probability distribution of node voltages and branch flow were obtained. IEEE-30 node test was taken, impact of large-scale wind power on the voltage limit and flow distribution of grid based on proposed probabilistic power flow algorithm. Results show that: the branch power and node voltage with random fluctuations significantly increased near the wind farm accessing point. The algorithm can reflect the uncertainty and relevance of large-scale new energy accessing to the system, valuable information for power system planning and decision-makers can be provided.