3 Sources of Performance Risk in Complex System Development1

Developing complex systems is an exercise in uncertainty reduction and risk management. This article continues a previous paper, synthesizing research findings from literature and interviews with experienced product development managers and system engineers at a major aerospace company regarding the sources of uncertainty underlying one category of risk, product performance risk. Relationships between sources of performance uncertainty are shown using a causal framework. Consequences of performance uncertainty and shortfalls are also discussed. The goal of this preliminary work is to highlight areas for increased attention in planning and management processes, while providing a systems view of the effects of certain actions.