How to achieve the ecological sustainability goal of UNESCO Global Geoparks? A multi-scenario simulation and ecological assessment approach using Dabieshan UGGp, China as a case study

Abstract: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Global Geopark (UGGp) plays an important role in ecosystem services (ES) and geological diversity protection. However, the majority of the literature on UGGps focuses on geological heritage conservation, geological science and tourism development, while little attention is paid to the simulation of land use change patterns in UGGps and the associated ES dynamics. We evaluated the ES value (ESV), which can reflect the level of ES directly. To explore whether the declaration and construction of the UGGp will contribute towards ecological sustainability, it is both theoretically and practically important to examine changes in land use and ESV over time and space. By taking Dabieshan UGGp in China as an example, we first analyze the spatiotemporal evolutions of land use and ESV in Dabieshan during 2005–2018 before it was designated a UGGp. Then we use the future land use simulation model (FLUS) to predict the future landscape patterns and ESV in Dabieshan under three UGGp management scenarios, i.e., tourism development priority (TDP), core area protection (CAP) and strict ecological protection (SEP). The results show that: (1) high-intensity human activities negatively affect the provision of ES in Dabieshan UGGp, while ecological landscapes such as forest and water bodies have positive effects on ESV; (2) the ecological protection measures and regulations implemented by the local government during the declaration and construction of Dabieshan UGGp play an active role in preventing ecological landscapes from being occupied by construction land; and (3) under the TDP scenario that prioritizes tourism and economic development, ESV continues to fall as construction land expands during 2018–2031. Under the CAP scenario, the total ESV is lower than that in 2018, but the ESV in most core areas increases, which meets both economic development and ecological protection needs. In contrast, the ESV is constantly improving under the SEP scenario that maximum ecological benefits. Therefore, it is crucial for UGGps to strike a balance between economic development and ecosystem protection. These findings shed new light on the impacts of UGGps declaration and construction on ecosystems and provide valuable information for spatial planning and sustainable management of UGGps.