Integrated Forecasting Model for the Space Differentiation of Land Use Type under the Influence of Rail Transit Construction

An integrated model based on system cloud grey model and Markov chain was established to forecast differentiation of land type along urban rail transit when many random factors exist and statistics are scarce.Firstly,system cloud grey model was used to get the dynamic baseline for area change of every land type along the rail transit.Secondly,Markov chain was applied to achieve the state transition probability matrix,by which the forecasting result based on system cloud grey model was modified.Lastly,land use differentiation along the rail transit Line 1 in Nanjing from the year 2003 to 2015 was taken as an example to illustrate the application of the model.The forecasting results show as follows.Rail transit construction accelerates land use differentiation,and the process of land use differentiation is a non-stationary random process.The impacts of rail transit construction on different kinds of land use are different.The residence land is attracted by rail transit,whereas the manufacture land is excluded from rail transit.Rail transit has no obvious action on the land of public utilities.