Estimation of PM2.5 concentration considering meteorological factors, policy, and interregional atmospheric transport

Emission control strategies, meteorological factors, and interregional atmospheric transport of pollutants are considered significant factors that affect PM2.5 concentrations in a city. In this research, two multiple linear regression models are proposed to achieve an accurate estimation of PM2.5 concentrations in Zibo City, Shandong Province of China. The influence of policy was considered as dummy variables in the models. First, a PM2.5–meteorological–policy–interregional model was constructed to explore the diversity of influences from all the parameters mentioned above. Second, for easy predictions of PM2.5 concentrations in the future, a PM2.5–meteorological–policy model was constructed considering meteorological factors from ground monitoring and pertinent air control policies. Data needed to construct the models were obtained from the monthly statistical data from Zibo and surrounding cities from January 2014 to September 2019. Then, the model predictions were extended to July 2021 and compared with the actual series. Model verification was revealed using goodness-of-fit and significant testing statistics. In specific, temperature, wind velocity, and the implementation of relative policies had clear effects on the PM2.5 concentrations in Zibo. Furthermore, Jinan, the provincial capital bordering Zibo to the west, made the largest contribution to fluctuations in PM2.5 concentrations in Zibo. Accordingly, the implementation of strict policies and regulations was undoubtedly a better measure to reduce PM2.5 concentrations in a city under certain topographic and climatic conditions.