Energy and environmental systems planning under uncertainty-An inexact fuzzy-stochastic programming approach

In this study, an inexact fuzzy-stochastic energy model (IFS-EM) is developed for planning energy and environmental systems (EES) management under multiple uncertainties. In the IFS-EM, methods of interval parameter fuzzy linear programming (IFLP) and multistage stochastic programming with recourse (MSP) are introduced into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) framework, such that the developed model can tackle uncertainties described in terms of interval values, fuzzy sets and probability distributions. Moreover, it can reflect dynamic decisions for facility-capacity expansion and energy supply over a multistage context. The developed model is applied to a case of planning regional-scale energy and environmental systems to demonstrate its applicability, where three cases are considered based on different energy and environmental management policies. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They are helpful for supporting: (a) adjustment or justification of allocation patterns of regional energy resources and services, (b) formulation of local policies regarding energy consumption, economic development and environmental protection, and (c) in-depth analysis of tradeoffs among system cost, satisfaction degree and environmental requirement under multiple uncertainties.