A probabilistic analysis of power generation adequacy towards a climate-neutral Europe

Abstract Over the last decades, the actions aimed to realize an integrated pan-European electricity market brought about profound modifications on the physical, information and communication systems upon which the electricity delivery process occurs. In order to assess some of the techno-economic challenges relating to the single electricity market functioning, including the future needs of electricity, several dispatch models have been developed in recent years in Europe and the rest of the world. In particular, EUPowerDispatch, a minimum cost dispatch model, was originally developed to investigate the need for cross-border transmission investment in Europe. This paper proposes an improved version of EUPowerDispatch that aims at analysing the generation adequacy of the European electricity system in a probabilistic manner. For this purpose, planned and unplanned outages of all single conventional generating units are modelled. The former are optimally and timely allocated while the latter are stochastically generated with chronological Monte Carlo simulations. Data of wind and solar PV production from several meteorological years are accounted for as well as hydro series of run-of-river and natural inflows to the hydro reservoirs. The case study is composed of 33 European countries/regions which are linked through interconnectors. Indexes for the reliability assessment of electric power systems are calculated in order to study the generation adequacy of the European electricity system in 2025.