Spatial microsimulation modeling for residential energy demand of England in an uncertain future

High quality infrastructure is crucial to economic success and the sustainability of society. Infrastructures for services, such as transport, energy, and water supply, also have long lead times, and therefore require effective long-term planning. In this paper, we report on work undertaken as part of the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium to construct long-term models of demographic change which can help to inform infrastructure planning for transport, energy, and water as well as IT and waste. A set of demographic microsimulation models (MSM), which are spatially disaggregate to the geography of UK Local Authorities, provides a high level of detail for understanding the drivers of changing patterns of demand. However, although robust forecasting models are required to support projections based on the notion of ‘predict-and-provide,’ the potential for behavioral adaptation is also an important consideration in this context. In this paper, we therefore establish a framework for linkage of a...