The declining symbolic significance of the embargo for South Florida's Cuban Americans

The latest survey – in a series extending from 1991 to 2008 – shows for the first time that the US trade embargo no longer enjoys majority support among South Florida's Cuban Americans. This erosion of support may not be entirely a result of the failure of the embargo to accomplish its proclaimed goal. Nearly 50 years of economic sanctions against Cuba have not precipitated the Castro regime's compliance or collapse. Yet, majority support for the embargo was sustained across all Cuban American immigration cohorts and generations in a 2004 survey (N=1807). Significantly, the same survey shows that specific components of a full embargo – banning or restricting food, medicine and travel – obtained no more than minority support in any cohort arriving after 1981. This apparent discrepancy suggests that the embargo – embedded in an “exile ideology” – had become a more palatable, over-arching anti-Castro symbol than have specific anti-Castro sanctions. Logistic Regression results show that with respect to anti-Castro measures, sanctions incurring tangible costs generate the greatest disagreement among South Florida's Cuban Americans. Ultimately, in December 2008, even a largely symbolic expression of the exile ideology, Republican registration, was no longer embraced by a majority of Cuban Americans who had either recently immigrated or were born outside Cuba.