Chemical Weather Forecasting for Eastern China

Based on the Shanghai Meteorological Service WRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System (SMS-WARMS) and the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, a chemical weather forecasting system is being established for Eastern China. Anthropogenic emissions are based on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP) 2010 dataset, and biogenic emissions are estimated using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). Forecasting results during 7 August to 1 September 2016 are evaluated for Shanghai and eight provincial cities in Eastern China. The results exhibit large differences in model performance for different regions. The overestimation of NO2 and PM2.5 for the cities within or adjacent to the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region suggests air quality measures taken in preparation of the 2016 G20 Summit were effective in reducing pollutants concentrations. The results also show that large reductions in HTAP 2010 NOx and SO2 emissions are required, suggesting that regular updates of emission inventories are necessary to capture the rapid changes in pollutant emissions in Eastern China.