Modeling the distribution of the Near Eastern fire salamander (Salamandra infraimmaculata) and Kurdistan newt (Neurergus derjugini) under current and future climate conditions in Iraq

Abstract Among the amphibians, the most sensitive group to climate change are salamanders (e.g., Salamandra infraimmaculata and Neurergus derjugini). In Iraq, these species are considered threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) RED List (2020). Apart from their important role in forest ecosystems stability and integrity, they are useful indicators for ecosystems functions. These species occur only in the mountain forests of the northeast, the Kurdistan region of Iraq (KRI), and information on their distributions is limited and poorly understood. Using the maximum entropy modeling and geospatial techniques, we aimed to: (i) map current distributions of the two species, and predict potential habitat distributions; (ii) model impact of the future climate change on their distributions; (iii) map overlapping habitat range for the species; and (iv) determine the main environmental variables shaping their distributions. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.62070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the overall expansion magnitude of the habitat for the species would be smaller than the contraction magnitude. For S. infraimmaculata and N. derjugini, the habitat would contract by 1751.58 km2 (3.42%) and 2127.22 km2 (4.16%), whereas expand only 226.77 km2 (0.44%) and 1877.49 km2 (3.67%), respectively. Climate change would significantly reduce the habitat ranges of the two species in Iraq. Habitat reduction for S. infraimmaculata would be more than N. derjugini. The potential distribution of the species would be toward the mountain forests of the east mainly and southeast of the KRI. Conservation actions should concentrate on the mountain forests (mixed oak) by establishing national parks, protected areas, and developing forest management policy. Current emphasis for conservation priority should focus specifically on areas where the species overlap by 1583.71 km2 (3.09%). Our study provides baseline information for further investigation of the mountain forest ecosystems, and biodiversity conservation actions in Iraq.