The characteristics of carbon emissions of Gansu Province from energy consumption and its scenario analysis based on IPAT identity

The characteristics of carbon emissions from energy consumption and its composition of Gansu Province from 1990 to 2009 were analyzed,the utility of IPAT identity in environment impact assessment was explored,and the future of Gansu Province's economic development and carbon emissions were predicted.The results showed that the carbon emissions from energy consumption in 2009 amounted to 3684.54 t,which was 2.54 times of 1990.The composition of the carbon emissions mainly depended on changes in the structure of energy consumption.There is great potential to be realized through energy restructuring for low-carbon economy development.During 1990~2009,the carbon emissions of Gansu Province increased by 5.03% annually with the together work of population,income and carbon emissions intensity.According to "decoupling" theory,Gansu is still in the weak dematerialization stage.Scenario analysis showed that under the existing technology conditions,economic development is based on the cost of environmental degradation.Gansu should ensure the sustainable development of regional economic,focus on the introduction and development of renewable energy technologies,and promote these technologies to large-scale industry.