Stock Trend Prediction with Multi-granularity Data: A Contrastive Learning Approach with Adaptive Fusion

2021 
Stock trend prediction plays a crucial role in quantitative investing. Given the prediction task on a certain granularity (e.g., daily trend), a large portion of existing studies merely leverage market data of the same granularity (e.g., daily market data). In financial investment scenarios, however, there exist amounts of finer-grained information (e.g., high-frequency data) that contain more detailed investment signals beyond the original granularity data. This motivates us to investigate how to leverage multi-granularity market data to enhance the accuracy of stock trend prediction. Some straightforward methods, such as concatenating finer-grained data as features or fusing with a model based on finer-grained features, may not lead to more precise stock trend prediction due to some unique challenges. First, the inconsistency of granularity between the target trend and finer-grained data could substantially increase optimization difficulty, such as the relative sparsity of the target trend compared with higher dimensions of finer-grained features. Moreover, the continuously changing financial market state could result in varying efficacy of heterogeneous multi-granularity information, which consequently requires a dynamic approach for proper fusion among them. In this paper, we propose the Contrastive Multi-Granularity Learning Framework (CMLF) to address these challenges. Particularly, we first design two novel contrastive learning objectives at the pre-training stage to address the inconsistency issue by constructing additional self-supervised signals relying on the inherent character of stock data. We also design a gate mechanism based on market-aware technical indicators to fuse the multi-granularity features at each time step adaptively. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets show significant improvements of our approach over the state-of-the-art baselines on stock trend prediction and profitability in real investing scenarios.
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