Discrete Event Simulation of Cyber Maintenance Policies According to Nested Birth and Death Processes

This article proposes a novel discrete event simulation model for predicting cyber maintenance costs under multiple scenarios. In this study, our model of the evolution of computer hosts is similar to the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (S-I-R) epidemiological model. A double or "nested birth and death" construction is used for the hosts and the vulnerabilities on the hosts. The objectives of the model are to study the benefits and drawbacks of current scanning policy and maintenance policy, evaluate cost-effective alternatives, and investigate the significance of celebrity vulnerabilities.