Inherent Uncertainty in the Determination of Multiple Event Cross Sections in Radiation Tests

In radiation tests on SRAMs or FPGAs, two or more independent bitflips can be misled with a multiple event if they accidentally occur in neighbor cells. In the past, different tests such as the ``birthday statistics'' have been proposed to estimate the accuracy of the experimental results. In this paper, simple formulae are proposed to determine the expected number of false 2-bit and 3-bit MCUs from the number of bitflips, memory size and the method used to search multiple events. These expressions are validated using Monte Carlo simulations and experimental data. Also, a technique is proposed to refine experimental data and thus partially removing possible false events. Finally, it is demonstrated that there is a physical limit to determine the cross section of memories with arbitrary accuracy from a single experiment.