Philosophical Foundations of Building Economics: The Problem of Induction

This paper considers the empiricist approach to the problem of induction and the implications in applied building economics. Induction, or the generalising from small to large samples, or generalising from past to the future, is shown to be logically indefensible as a legitimate means of knowledge acquisition thus bringing into question the whole of empirical research as a means of generating knowledge. This raises the issue of the distinction between knowledge and beliefs and the nature of probabilistic statements, and this is examined in the context of building economic modelling. It is concluded that probabilistic statements concern degrees of belief and should be tested as such.