Conflict analysis in implementing water resources management instruments.

Water resources management instruments are often pointed out as resolution tools for conflicts caused by water scarcity (first-order conflicts). However, the very tools adopted in order to manage water scarcity may indirectly cause second-order conflicts. This paper describes second-order conflicts, which can occur from implementing water permits and bulk water fees (according to the new Brazilian Water Law), analysing the conflict (urban supply vs irrigation) over a reservoir located in a semi-arid region of northeastern Brazil. Scenarios are built, based on: (a) conflict history, climate and hydrological regional conditions; (b) institutional, social and economic reality in the reservoir influence area; (c) three water management stages; and (d) different water permits and bulk water fees systems. Scenarios comparison gives information about management instruments attenuation/synergism potential, in relation to first-order conflict. Results presented by second-order conflict modelling can drive political decision-making for effective first- and second-order conflicts management.