PIN68 COVID-19 Simulator: An Interactive Tool to Inform COVID-19 Intervention Policy Decisions in the United States

Objectives: Dynamic and fast actions are needed to suppress the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which has affected every sector of human life Our objective was to develop an open-access, interactive tool for policy makers to inform timely decisions and evaluate the impact of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (of varied intensity and timing) on reducing the spread of COVID-19 in the Methods: We developed a compartmental model, the COVID-19 Simulator, to simulate the trajectory of COVID-19 in 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico The model is defined using Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered compartments (SEIR model) with continuous time progression Input data included reported state-specific daily cases, hospitalizations, and deaths;disease epidemiology parameters estimated by clinical studies, state-specific effective reproduction numbers, testing rates, and changes in mobility as reported by GPS location data Unobserved parameters were calibrated using generalized simulated annealing to match the daily reported cases and deaths We projected future cases of COVID-19, active cases of COVID-19, deaths, hospitalizations, and intensive care unit admissions under different levels of social-distancing measures (minimal restrictions, current intervention, stay-at-home orders, and lockdown) Results: The COVID-19 Simulator can help users to understand the implications, including deaths and hospital beds needed, of removing or adding restrictions at different time points Under current intervention levels, new cases per day are projected to surpass 100,000 by September in the US;implementing stay at home orders again in many states is necessary to create a downward trajectory in incidence High prevalence states may see a dramatic increase in deaths by Fall if policies do not change Conclusions: The COVID-19 Simulator provides an interactive platform to inform policy decisions on controlling the spread of COVID-19 The simulator is updated on a regular basis as new data become available and will be extended to inform new policy-relevant questions