Assessing the Potential Impact of Land Use on Carbon Storage Driven by Economic Growth: A Case Study in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Economic development and land-use change can strongly affect terrestrial ecosystems’ carbon balance. This paper quantifies the changes in land use of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRD) in 2020 and 2035 under three economic growth scenarios, exploring the concurrent impact on carbon storage. The results showed that the land carbon storage of YRD had decreased by 1453.80 Tg in 2000–2020, and will continue to decrease by 982.38 Tg, 1417.62 Tg, and 1636.21 Tg under the scenarios of a slow, medium, and rapid economic growth from 2020 to 2035, respectively. The large-scale occupation of cultivated land and woodland for construction land caused by economic development and population growth was an important reason. The occupation of cultivated land by construction land in Nanjing, Shanghai, and its surrounding areas had further intensified, while the reduction in carbon storage caused by the reduction in woodland had become more prominent in Hangzhou, Shaoxing, Jinhua, and the surrounding areas.