Adaptive planning for resilient urban water systems under an uncertain future

Water planners are familiar with some form of variability in climate and demand. However, the uncertainty associated with the frequency and magnitude of the variations, coupled with broader performance expectations, means that long term deterministic planning needs to give way to a new approach. The structured adaptive planning process proposed in this paper aims to meet those objectives and accommodate the uncertainty in the future by developing a portfolio of measures that are both flexible to gradual changes in trends and robust to sudden shocks. A step-by-step process of the planning framework is presented. This is followed by a case study of the inputs and results based on its implementation by the Melbourne water businesses.